Topic > Finance: Stocks Vs Treasury Bonds - 510

Historically speaking, stocks have been found to be no riskier than Treasury bonds. Extensive research has been done on this topic over the past twenty years. Jeremy Siegel of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School said that "the safest long-term investment to preserve purchasing power is clearly stocks, not bonds." Since the mid-2020s, corporate stocks have averaged an annual return of close to 11%, while Treasury bonds yield just over 5%. The shares are currently rising. Since 1982 the reason for this is the decrease in the risk premium. The return, or “risk premium,” required is much lower. This happens for several reasons. Investors have realized that they are not so scared by the great unpredictability of stocks. Instead of shorting stocks in the short term, investors are learning to hold on for the long term to reap huge benefits. Second, Americans now hold stocks in accounts that require long-term holding, such as retirement accounts. Furthermore, businesses are becoming much more efficient and the chances of suffering devastating turnarounds during a recession are much lower. The fiscal environment is more generous, foreign threats have dramatically ceased, and government management has significantly improved. The point is that the risk of investing in stocks is much lower than it has ever been before. The level of the risk premium is approaching zero, while it currently remains at 3%. That 3% is much better than the historical average of 7%. James K. Glassman and Kevin A Hassett, authors of the book “Dow 36,000,” say that predicting the Dow to reach 36,000 is not out of the realm of possibility. . If earnings grow long-term at the same pace as GDP and Treasury bonds are below 6%, then the Dow is very likely to reach the 36,000 level. A critic of the “Dow 36,000,” Burton G. Malkiel, said the rise in stocks that is occurring is the beginning of an adjustment that “will be complete only when stocks and bonds are priced to offer equivalent returns, and that implies a 36,000 level for the Dow today with a price-earnings multiple of 100. So the question remains whether the authors of "Dow 36,000" are right or wrong about the arguments and predictions they make in their book. They are right in what they predict in their book, but they need to make sure they don't lead some not-so-savvy investors down the wrong path of deception.